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Positive Tipping Points - Tim Lenton ***

In his subtitle, Tim Lenton makes a daring claim: this book is going to tell us how to fix the climate crisis. This is surely very timely when there has never been such scepticism about the need to take action that can damage economies.

Lenton takes it for granted that things are bad, opening with statements like 'We are beginning to realize that we need to change course fast if we are to avoid catastrophe, and that we are not changing fast enough.' It's certainly true that some people realize this, but it's also fair to say that many don't, including notable major world leaders - there's always a danger of the academic 'we' being assumed to be representative of humanity as a whole.

The solution that Lenton proposes (the title is a bit of a give-away) is that we 'find and trigger positive tipping points that accelerate change in our societies and technology towards sustainability and social justice.' 

The book proper begins with an exploration of the mess we're in, starting (as has become something of a cliché) with a personal story: in this case of Lenton filming for a TV series about ice-loss in Greenland in 2012. Alongside the message about climate change itself, Lenton illustrates the concept of tipping points with stories including the blocking of the Suez Canal in 2021 with its knock-on effects, and the speedy spread of the COVID virus with its dramatic, high-speed change on global behaviour. 

These non-linear impacts are then used to show how the climate protest movement went from small beginnings to have a major impact. We are told of successes, like the dramatic rise of electric vehicles in Norway and the move away from fossil fuels for electricity generation in the UK. From here we move on to an introduction to the nature of systems that have tipping points and of past tipping points in human societies (many anything but positive). We find out more about climate change, and its potential impact on humans in different environments, noting the great inequality where 'those suffering most have contributed least to causing the problem.'

So far, we have been dealing with what the problem is - and many climate change books end here. But Lenton then moves into considering how we can avert disaster. Continuing his use of stories, he starts this with a look at the Titanic disaster, using this as analogy as to why it is so difficult to 'stop the ship of global warming.' No solutions yet - but we are told that we can in principle change fast, and to believe this we need to look at examples from the past.

We are told of tipping point successes from the suffragettes to the motor car. Lenton suggests that climate activists, including Greta Thunberg and Extinction Rebellion, have had a positive effect in moving public opinion towards the need to carry out radical change to deal with the climate crisis - but this does feel like wishful thinking as current evidence is anything but supportive of such an approaching tipping point - and much of the population outside a particular bubble found the actions Extinction Rebellion and their spinoffs turned them away from the importance of dealing with climate change. The same goes for enthusiasm for 'new forms of democracy' (primarily citizens' assemblies) which seem unlikely to appeal outside a certain academic mindset. 

The book is based in the political and economic world of five to ten years ago rather than the present. For example Lenton comments 'Many worry that the roll out of charging infrastructure [for EVs] cannot keep pace. But globally the deployment of public charging stations is keep up with the exponential growth of EVs.' I'm a fervent enthusiast for EVs, but my personal experience of finding charging stations in the UK (and of suffering pricing above that of petrol) does not support this - and this underlines the biggest problem with Lenton's philosophy. Even if this were true globally (and I don't think it is now), it is what happens locally that most affects our behaviour. It's fine to have high-minded vision, but the globalist viewpoint is in decline. It has to work here and for our country.

In a sense, the subtitle is fulfilled. Lenton does tell us how to fix the climate crisis. But it involves spreading a worldview that isn't present in the majority in many countries: if anything it is made less popular by the actions of Extinction Rebellion and their like. He does warn of the dangers of populism - but is not offering anything that helps those who are attracted to populism because of their lack of trust in an establishment of which Lenton is very much a part. My suspicion is that this is a 'how' that can't practically be implemented. I hope it can, but I doubt it will.

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