This is an absolutely fascinating book for anyone interested in the way that science really works, bearing in mind the difficulties of having to base our models and theories on induction. Andrew Jaffe introduces the difficulties we face when trying to take a scientific view because largely we are dependent on induction: predicting the future from what has previously been observed. He explores what probability is, the two key ways of looking at it (frequentist and Bayesian) and how scientists use (or misuse it) to work out the implications of their experiments for hypotheses. This is then expanded into looking at the nature of scientific models and the philosophy of science before heading out to entropy, quantum randomness and attempting to achieve meaningful cosmology with its potential dearth of evidence. The topic might sound a little dry, but in fact Jaffe does it with good humour and a very readable style. For example, he uses measuring his daughter's height by making marks on...
Bill McGuire is Professor Emeritus of Geophysical and Climate Hazards at University College London, a co-director of the New Weather Institute, and a patron of Scientists for Global Responsibility. He was a member of SAGE, the Science Advisory Group in Emergencies. He was also a member of the UK Government Natural Hazard Working Group. He lives in the Peak District. His latest book is The Fate of the World . Why look back at past climates? Modelling can take us only so far in terms of trying to figure out what our future climate be like. Looking back in time, however, allows us to see both the causes of rapid climate change and the consequences. All the evidence is laid out for us in the rocks, sediments, ice cores and the remains of ancient life, helping us to build a picture of where our climate is headed. The Pliocene, for example, was an epoch when the temperature was up to 4°C higher than during pre-industrial times, and sea levels 15...