Skip to main content

The Long History of the Future - Nicole Kobie ****

We've all got a favourite bit of technology that has been 'coming soon' for decades. Nicole Kobie takes us through the historical journey to the present for a range of such technologies from flying cars to robots (more detail in a moment). In each case these technologies seemed achievable many decades earlier, but the reality has been that making the dream real proved much harder than most envisaged (especially the inventors and investors).

Kobie takes us through driverless cars, AI, robots, augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR), cyborgs and brain interfaces, flying cars, Hyperloops and smart cities. Many of these topics are much discussed, but it's really helpful seeing them all pulled together to get an overview of the way that we repeatedly get drawn into failed investments of time and money into a science fictional future without thinking enough about the practicalities of making it happen.

My least favourite section was smart cities - I think most people (once Hyperloop is explained) would recognise what was being attempted in most topics, but wouldn't have a clue what a smart city is - in fact, even after reading the chapter I'm not much the wiser, and Kobie concludes that they don't really exist. This makes it hard to get interested in the subject. Probably my favourite was the chapter on AR/VR - because it feels like the technology that is closest to being achievable while at the same time no one is really quite certain why we want it. This book makes a wonderful contrast with The Infinite Retina which, in 2020 was predicting we would all be wearing AR glasses by now instead of using smartphones. That book also seemed to think autonomous vehicles were about to take over, making the remarkable statement 'Electric vehicles are cheaper. Autonomous vehicles are too...', demonstrating how much the authors were in the kind of bubble that explains many of the continued investments in unlikely tech that Kobie describes.

For me there was one big omission here - nuclear fusion power stations - but there has been plenty written about those. There are broadly two approaches Kobie could have taken, each with their merits and demerits. She could have picked out key developments for each technology, giving a chance for more storytelling about them (and the stories are sometimes brilliant), or she could have mentioned a whole host of attempts, giving a more comprehensive history but less to enjoy. If I'm honest, for popular science like this I would prefer the first approach, but Kobe has gone for the second - rather than give us that depth, she does give footnotes to longer articles, but that doesn't provide the same narrative drive. Sometimes, there were just too many steps along the way without enough detail to make it interesting.

I will also throw in one specific moan on historical inaccuracy - Kobie perpetuates the myth of Ada Lovelace (strictly Ada King, Countess of Lovelace) as the 'inventor of computer programming'. It's arguable whether or not what was published were programs rather than algorithms, but what's certainly true is that Babbage wrote several before Lovelace made her contribution - so if you want to refer to this as the point in time we got the first programmer, it was Babbage, not Lovelace.

Although I personally would have preferred fewer bits of tech in each section with more storytelling, I ought to stress that Kobie's approach is great in giving us a picture of just how many attempts have been made along the way, and the difficult path there has been to attempt these innovative but not necessarily realistic technological developments. It's an excellent addition to the tech-lover's (or the tech-sceptic's) bookshelf.

Hardback:   
Kindle 
Using these links earns us commission at no cost to you
Review by Brian Clegg - See all Brian's online articles or subscribe to a weekly email free here

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

The Genetic Book of the Dead: Richard Dawkins ****

When someone came up with the title for this book they were probably thinking deep cultural echoes - I suspect I'm not the only Robert Rankin fan in whom it raised a smile instead, thinking of The Suburban Book of the Dead . That aside, this is a glossy and engaging book showing how physical makeup (phenotype), behaviour and more tell us about the past, with the messenger being (inevitably, this being Richard Dawkins) the genes. Worthy of comment straight away are the illustrations - this is one of the best illustrated science books I've ever come across. Generally illustrations are either an afterthought, or the book is heavily illustrated and the text is really just an accompaniment to the pictures. Here the full colour images tie in directly to the text. They are not asides, but are 'read' with the text by placing them strategically so the picture is directly with the text that refers to it. Many are photographs, though some are effective paintings by Jana Lenzová. T

Everything is Predictable - Tom Chivers *****

There's a stereotype of computer users: Mac users are creative and cool, while PC users are businesslike and unimaginative. Less well-known is that the world of statistics has an equivalent division. Bayesians are the Mac users of the stats world, where frequentists are the PC people. This book sets out to show why Bayesians are not just cool, but also mostly right. Tom Chivers does an excellent job of giving us some historical background, then dives into two key aspects of the use of statistics. These are in science, where the standard approach is frequentist and Bayes only creeps into a few specific applications, such as the accuracy of medical tests, and in decision theory where Bayes is dominant. If this all sounds very dry and unexciting, it's quite the reverse. I admit, I love probability and statistics, and I am something of a closet Bayesian*), but Chivers' light and entertaining style means that what could have been the mathematical equivalent of debating angels on

David Spiegelhalter Five Way interview

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS OBE is Emeritus Professor of Statistics in the Centre for Mathematical Sciences at the University of Cambridge. He was previously Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication and has presented the BBC4 documentaries Tails you Win: the Science of Chance, the award-winning Climate Change by Numbers. His bestselling book, The Art of Statistics , was published in March 2019. He was knighted in 2014 for services to medical statistics, was President of the Royal Statistical Society (2017-2018), and became a Non-Executive Director of the UK Statistics Authority in 2020. His latest book is The Art of Uncertainty . Why probability? because I have been fascinated by the idea of probability, and what it might be, for over 50 years. Why is the ‘P’ word missing from the title? That's a good question.  Partly so as not to make it sound like a technical book, but also because I did not want to give the impression that it was yet another book