Skip to main content

The Ten Equations that Rule the World - David Sumpter ****

David Sumpter makes it clear in this book that a couple of handfuls of equations have a huge influence on our everyday lives. I needed an equation too to give this book a star rating - I’ve never had one where there was such a divergence of feeling about it. I wanted to give it five stars for the exposition of the power and importance of these equations and just two stars for an aspect of the way that Sumpter did it. The fact that the outcome of applying my star balancing equation was four stars emphasises how good the content is.

What we have here is ten key equations from applied mathematics. (Strictly, nine, as the tenth isn’t really an equation, it’s the programmer’s favourite ‘If… then…’ - though as a programmer I was always more an ‘If… then… else…’ fan.) Those equations range from the magnificent one behind Bayesian statistics and the predictive power of logistic regression to the method of determining confidence intervals and the kind of influencer matrix so beloved of social media companies. Each is well-described with often personal examples. While it’s hyperbole to suggest that these ten equations rule the world of applied mathematics, let alone the real world, they are certainly key components of the applied mathematics toolbox.

Let me make it clear, I should have absolutely loved this book - it should have been the best book I’ve read all year. The introduction and clear explanation of these equations gives me exactly the same thrill I remember doing my Masters in Operational Research and discovering the power to do remarkable things for people and businesses that these kind of techniques bring. Wonderful. But.

The lesser problem I have with the context is that almost all of Sumpter’s big examples of applications in the world were either trivial (in sports or games, for example) or morally dodgy, such as betting, stock market trading or social media and advertising manipulation of people. Sumpter suggests at one point that though these tools can be used for good or evil, those who use them are mostly on the side of the angels - it hardly seems to be the case with the examples he uses.

The bigger problem is that Sumpter frames all this with applied mathematicians being described as members of TEN, a secret illuminati-style set of people who rule the world through their ability to understand and make use of these equations. This comes across as both silly and intensely smug - I really don’t think it does anything to win across those for whom any equation is a turn-off. Instead it just underlines any existing prejudice.

The frustrating thing is that Sumpter makes passing reference to lots of real research with positive implications where these approaches are taken - but all his big stories are about things like sports betting which hardly comes across as a positive thing to do. The downside of the smugness is that it’s difficult not to look for opportunities to turn some of his comments against him. So, for example, he criticises 60 to 69 year olds who criticise Greta Thunberg for damaging the environment by flying off on holiday without pointing out that academics like Sumpter are always jetting off around the world to conferences - a touch of the glass houses equation required there.

This was truly a hard review to write. I really like David Sumpter’s work and looked forward to reading this book as soon as I saw it. Somehow it manages to be excellent and an opportunity missed all at the same time.

Hardback:    
Kindle:  
Using these links earns us commission at no cost to you
Review by Brian Clegg
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The Antigravity Enigma - Andrew May ****

Antigravity - the ability to overcome the pull of gravity - has been a fantasy for thousands of years and subject to more scientific (if impractical) fictional representation since H. G. Wells came up with cavorite in The First Men in the Moon . But is it plausible scientifically?  Andrew May does a good job of pulling together three ways of looking at our love affair with antigravity (and the related concept of cancelling inertia) - in science fiction, in physics and in pseudoscience and crankery. As May points out, science fiction is an important starting point as the concept was deployed there well before we had a good enough understanding of gravity to make any sensible scientific stabs at the idea (even though, for instance, Michael Faraday did unsuccessfully experiment with a possible interaction between gravity and electromagnetism). We then get onto the science itself, noting the potential impact on any ideas of antigravity that come from the move from a Newtonian view of a...
Post a Comment
Read more

The World as We Know It - Peter Dear ***

History professor Peter Dear gives us a detailed and reasoned coverage of the development of science as a concept from its origins as natural philosophy, covering the years from the eighteenth to the twentieth century. inclusive If that sounds a little dry, frankly, it is. But if you don't mind a very academic approach, it is certainly interesting. Obviously a major theme running through is the move from largely gentleman natural philosophers (with both implications of that word 'gentleman') to professional academic scientists. What started with clubs for relatively well off men with an interest, when universities did not stray far beyond what was included in mathematics (astronomy, for instance), would become a very different beast. The main scientific subjects that Dear covers are physics and biology - we get, for instance, a lot on the gradual move away from a purely mechanical views of physics - the reason Newton's 'action at a distance' gravity caused such ...
Post a Comment
Read more

It's On You - Nick Chater and George Loewenstein *****

Going on the cover you might think this was a political polemic - and admittedly there's an element of that - but the reason it's so good is quite different. It shows how behavioural economics and social psychology have led us astray by putting the focus way too much on individuals. A particular target is the concept of nudges which (as described in Brainjacking ) have been hugely over-rated. But overall the key problem ties to another psychological concept: framing. Huge kudos to both Nick Chater and George Loewenstein - a behavioural scientist and an economics and psychology professor - for having the guts to take on the flaws in their own earlier work and that of colleagues, because they make clear just how limited and potentially dangerous is the belief that individuals changing their behaviour can solve large-scale problems. The main thesis of the book is that there are two ways to approach the major problems we face - an 'i-frame' where we focus on the individual ...
Post a Comment
Read more