Bill McGuire - Five Way Interview

Bill McGuire is Professor Emeritus of Geophysical and Climate Hazards at University College London, a co-director of the New Weather Institute and was a contributor to the 2012 IPCC report on climate change and extreme events. His books include A Guide to the End of the World: Everything You Never Wanted to Know and Waking the Giant: How a Changing Climate Triggers Earthquakes, Tsunamis and Volcanoes. His first novel, Skyseed – an eco-thriller about climate engineering gone wrong – was published in 2020. He writes for many publications, including the Guardian, The Times, the Observer, New Scientist, Science Focus and Prospect and is author of the Cool Earth blog on Substack. Bill lives, runs (sometimes) and grows fruit and veg in the wonderful English Peak District, where he resides with his wife Anna, sons Jake and Fraser and cats Dave, Toby and Cashew. His latest book is Hothouse Earth: an Inhabitant's Guide.

Why Science?

They say write about what you know. I am a scientist, so what else would I write about? Thinking back, I have been writing about science since I was 13 years old. At secondary school, I published a magazine called Naturescope, for which I wrote most of the articles, and I haven't really stopped since. While it is always a great feeling to get a paper published in an academic journal, especially a prestigious one like Nature, writing about science for other people has always been more fun and - ultimately - more gratifying.

Why this book?

Hothouse Earth: an Inhabitant's Guide is a book that was just waiting to be written. If I hadn't written it, somebody else would have. Despite politicians droning on about reaching net zero carbon by mid century, and climate scientists talking about how crucial it is that we keep the global average temperature rise (since pre-industrial times) below 1.5°C by 2030, it became very clear - post COP26 in Glasgow - that these goals were either too late, or no longer possible. The reality is that the 45 percent cut in global emissions needed within 90 months to have a chance of staying this side of the 1.5°C dangerous climate change guardrail, is just not going to happen. Emissions continue to climb, and are actually set to be 14 percent or more higher by this time. The corollary of this is that we can no longer sidestep perilous, all-pervasive, climate breakdown, that will affect all of us and intrude into every part of our lives. I think, looking around us at the extreme weather of this year and last, that this will honestly not come as a surprise to many people.

The book is inevitably quite depressing - can you give any glimmers of hope?

Indeed. It is hard not be depressed when we look about us at the way we have trashed - and continue to trash - our world, and rip apart our once stable climate. Glimmers of hope are few and far between, but there is a frisson of anticipation that things are changing - not at the top but at the bottom. World leaders are almost totally in thrall to a political-economic system predicated on greed, profit and short-term gain, and it is impossible to see them throwing this over in order to make a serious attempt to tackle the climate emergency. Fortunately, the youth of the world have a completely different view. They know that they are the ones who will suffer most and understand that if we don't work together for the common good than the only possible outcome will be a climate cataclysm. As war, energy and food crises, and growing poverty and inequality come together - along with accelerating climate breakdown - I sense that we are on the cusp of a revolution that will fundamentally change for the better the way society and economy work, and give us a fighting chance of at least limiting the impact of inevitable climate collapse. The transition may not be pretty, but it is inevitable if we are to have a future worth living. You may say I'm a dreamer, as someone once said, but I can assure you, I am not the only one.

What's next?

I write fiction as well as popular science, and I am planning to focus on this for the next couple of years. My debut novel, Skyseed - an ecothriller about climate engineering gone wrong - was published in Autumn 2020. It was short-listed for the next crop of BBC Radio drama series, but we heard recently that we didn't get the final thumbs-up. Seemingly, this isn't the right time for a hard-hitting drama about the climate!!! All hope is not lost, however, and the book is now being pitched as a television series. Writing-wise, I am working on two Young Adult novels - one set in the distant future, the other on an alternative Earth. As you might expect, both have a strong science element, although I would hesitate to call either science fiction.

What's exciting you at the moment?

I had to think about this for a while. I don't tend to get excited about stuff easily and there is certainly nothing new on the climate breakdown mitigation front that is tickling my fancy. If I am honest, I would probably have to say the work and prospects of my 18-year old son, Fraser. He already writes for a number of publications and has a high profile at national level in youth politics. In a few months he begins a degree in Politics and Modern History at the University of Manchester, with a view to following a political career. Fraser is emblematic of the young people of the UK and countries across the world, who hold the future of our society and our planet in their hands.

Interview by Brian Clegg - See all of Brian's online articles or subscribe to a weekly digest free here